Border to Coast (BTC) 1Q26
We are pleased to share our latest quarterly review of Border to Coast (BTC), covering 1Q26 fund performance, market backdrop, key risk considerations and discussion questions for LGPS fund oversight.
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Local Authorities and the Autumn Budget
2025 Autumn Budget will provide few positives for local authorities
The Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, will present the Autumn Budget on 26th November. This is an unenviable task given weak growth, geopolitical uncertainties and mounting spending pressures.
The UK government can take some comfort from the fact that other countries are facing similar fiscal challenges. Indeed, among the G7 countries the UK has the second lowest share of government debt in GDP, so shared pain might be half the pain, as the saying goes. The IMF covered this in detail only a few weeks ago: https://lnkd.in/eAYbse7B
Recent developments have offered an additional boost. Updated fiscal assessments suggest the Budget “black hole” in public finances is smaller than previously feared, prompting Rachel Reeves to signal that she will not need to raise income tax after all.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies recently looked at available tax-raising options and dismissed most on fairness, efficiency and other grounds. Raising council tax receipts beyond the already agreed 4.3% annually in future might be an option. This would benefit local authorities unless the central government decided to lower grants in return. But even this would not be without challenges: while the tax take could be boosted by raising tax rates on homes in higher value bands, these bands are still based on property prices when council tax was introduced in the early-1990s. Policymakers have not found the courage to update these bands in more than 30 years, it is unlikely they will find it now. It is no wonder that more and more organisations are arguing for fundamental tax reforms to lift growth and prosperity.
https://lnkd.in/esTcVF-J
For local authorities the autumn budget is unlikely to bring major positive surprises. In mid-October the government confirmed that it would postpone the publication of its eagerly-awaited SEND reform white paper until early-2026, however we remain hopeful that meaningful policy interventions will emerge to address the current shortcomings of the system. Local authorities are not navigating this landscape alone – Camdor Global Advisors continues to support councils with identifying sustainable strategies despite constrained budgets, help to strengthen resilience, and position themselves to take advantage of opportunities as they arise.
https://lnkd.in/eRAjM6AJ
Pension Scheme Bill Commentary
On 29 April the Pension Schemes Bill received Royal Assent and became law. It brings to a close a policy initiative which started in late 2024 with Chancellor Reeves’ first Mansion House speech.
The Pulse Newsletter April 2026: Pension UK Economic and Policy Developments – From Inflation Pressures to Energy Transition
The April pulse is here!
Brief updates on the macro environment, markets and key ESG developments are below:
Human Expertise vs AI
AI adoption is accelerating. Decision makers, researchers and policy professionals increasingly use AI-generated output to drive strategic assessments, policy advice and investment discussions. The question is no longer what AI can do, but how much we can trust it. AI adopters should be cautious and consider the risks regarding accuracy, credibility and reliability. While we acknowledge AI…
Government rethinks pensions and public services as fiscal pressures grow
On 21 July 2025, the UK Government made its first major announcement with the establishment of a new pensions commission that could reshape the country’s approach to retirement saving.
UK Public Finances
In 2022-23 public-sector net borrowing excl. public-sector banks amounted to 5.1% of GDP. Central government is responsible for the overwhelming share of public-sector net borrowing.
In 2022-23 public-sector net debt was close to 100% of GDP – about average for an advanced…
